Ireland’s total food and beverage market will reach €36.6 billion this year
New research from Institute of Grocery Distribution (IGD) reveals Ireland’s total food and beverage (F&B) market will reach €36.6 billion this year, with a projected CAGR of +3.0% to 2030. However, growth will mainly come from inflation and population increases as households continue to tighten spending and prioritise affordability.
Ireland’s 2026 Budget on 7 October included VAT relief for food and catering services, reducing rates from 13.5% to 9%. But it is unlikely that savings will be passed to consumers when operators have an opportunity to claw back some of the margins they have lost in recent years to rising costs. As a result, consumers’ cost-cutting behaviours will continue for the foreseeable future.
These findings are revealed in two new IGD reports which provide five-year forecasts for Ireland’s Away From Home (AFH) channel and Ireland’s total F&B market, which take into account all sales from both retail and AFH channels.
Ireland economy outperforming UK
The Irish economy overtook the UK in early 2025, boosted by strong output and exports ahead of US tariffs. This lifted GDP, driving high business and consumer confidence, robust domestic spending, and healthy employment.
Inflation has remained lower than in the UK, which has contributed to more buoyant discretionary spending. However, this trend seems to be slowing as 2025 progresses. Rising grocery prices are contributing to a decline in consumer confidence, leading many to save rather than spend on non-essential items and services.
James Walton, Chief Economist at IGD, commented: “It is important to recognise that the significant growth experienced in the first half of the year is expected to slow. A drop in consumer confidence could reduce discretionary spending in the upcoming months, especially if global uncertainties regarding trade policy continue.”
Hope for Away From Home
IGD projects Ireland’s AFH market will reach a value of €15.4 billion with a CAGR of +3.9% to 2030, but real volume growth will not arrive until at least 2027, as economic pressures continue to weigh on both consumers and operators.
Consumers are dining out less often and saving restaurant visits for special occasions. Adding to the challenge, tourism numbers are falling. Caps on Dublin Airport’s capacity and Ireland’s growing reputation as an expensive destination have reduced both inbound and domestic travel, impacting hotels, restaurants, pubs, and visitor attractions.
The long-term outlook is slightly brighter, however, as Nichola Gallagher, Senior Insight Analyst at IGD, explains: “We expect rising tourism and Gen Z’s growing appetite for quick-service restaurants to boost visit frequency in the coming years. Meanwhile, leisure and experience-led venues – especially those offering competitive socialising – are likely to see growth as consumers seek affordable, shared entertainment.”
IGD offers total market insight and forecasts for Ireland. To find out more about IGD’s new Away From Home insight service, for contact details, or to register for content visit: https://www.igd.com/commercial-insight/away-from-home.
